American Almond Industry: Key Trends, Challenges and Future Outlook
The United States, with California as the epicenter, is a prominent global player in almond production. Various prospects and obstacles have been instrumental in shaping the current status and the impending future of the U.S. almond industry.
Boosters and Favorable Conditions:
The American craving for almonds remains intense, thanks to their well-documented health advantages, adaptability, and fit with emerging food trends such as plant-based and vegan diets. With the highest number of new product incorporations among all nuts in 2021/2022, almonds have cemented a solid demand foundation, which is likely to yield more substantial prices going forward.
The rising popularity of plant-based and vegan diets across all markets is anticipated to further fuel the demand surge. Additionally, supply chain issues that had hindered export potential in 2021 have seen significant improvements.
An ample snowpack coupled with greater-than-average rainfall has secured the water supply for this year, and a full allocation is likely for the next year, assuming the typical precipitation levels in the upcoming winter.
Impediments and Adverse Conditions:
In the aftermath of Covid-19, almond consumption has taken a hit in critical channels and categories due to the inflationary pressures affecting consumer spending habits. Supply chain complications haven't been completely ironed out, with port labor discussions yet to reach a conclusion.
Trade tariffs imposed by China and India continue to be a thorn in the side for the U.S., with no imminent solution in sight. Furthermore, farmers are in an unfavorable economic situation, with market prices falling below production costs. Regulatory burdens are also likely to continue affecting water accessibility, posing a constraint on the expansion of agricultural land in California.
Production Figures:
The anticipated U.S. almond output for the world for 2022/2023 was approximately 1,142,740 metric tons, with an overall supply of 1,522,505 metric tons. The opening stock for the 2023/2024 period is projected to be 333,485 metric tons, with an estimated crop size of 1,111,615 metric tons, resulting in a total supply of 1,445,100 metric tons. The closing stock for 2023/2024 is projected to stand at 204,174 metric tons.
The estimated almond yield for the U.S. in 2023 is based on the NASS Subjective Estimate of 2.5 billion minus a 2% loss and exemption. The estimated ending stock for U.S. 2022/23 (the starting stock for 2023/24) is calculated by BD/WP&A.
Epilogue:
While the U.S. almond sector is set to thrive, supported by robust demand and favorable market dynamics, it also confronts considerable hurdles such as supply chain disruptions, trade tariffs, and regulatory constraints. Notwithstanding these hurdles, the industry's horizon appears optimistic, presenting opportunities for further growth and diversification.
Source: ALMONDS Round Table, INC
