Cashew Market Update October 2021
Compared to a month ago, the cashew nut market has been pretty stagnant as of lately. This is probably because it was expected that something “big” would happen in August with the market expecting quite a bit of new buyers coming in to make up for the rest of the year.
While negotiations for deliveries started quite early on and there were talks going all the way to 2022, nothing actually came of this.
The Market Situation So Far
Vietnam has actually imported another 275,000 MT since August, bringing the total of imports to a staggering 2.4 million tons for this year. This is an interesting situation because Vietnam has been importing kernels for processing and selling and given how no new buyers have materialized, there is a big question mark on whether they will be able to deliver or not.
By the end of August 2021, Vietnam’s kernel export increased by more than 22% compared to that same period in 2020; however, the increase in imported RCN thus far this year has exceeded RCN imports of last year by 124%.
It will be interesting to see how quickly the available quantities will be picked up by the buyers in Vietnam and India.
However, the continued lack of interest from the EU and the USA is why kernel prices are declining. Vietnamese shippers have lowered their prices for W320’s from USD 3,30 to USD 3,20-3,15 per lb FOB for the remainder of this year, some even into the new year. So far, there has been no changes in the market and there is no telling whether the market will respond at all or not. If the situation continues, there will be a problem for long-term holders of RCN. With major crops from India, Vietnam, and especially Cambodia only a few months away, the selling opportunity for stocks of RCN is declining quickly.
What To Expect From Others
The next cashew crops available are from Tanzania and Indonesia. There have been no reports of any quality or quantity issues from these two so it is safe to assume that the total quantity of these crops will be comparable to or slightly higher than last year (about 220,000 MT for Tanzania and 120,000 MT for Indonesia).
