Cashew Nut Market Update January 2022 Week 3
Since it's still the start of the year, most dried fruit and nut varieties are either in the process of being harvested or the last of the crop is being sold. For cashew nuts, in particular, the auction is going on in Tanzania and other countries in the Southern Hemisphere. At the same time, in the Northern Hemisphere, most countries are steadily monitoring the new crop that has already been planted.
About 225,000 MT RCN of cashew in-shells have been auctioned by Tanzia so far. The crop size is expected to be more or less off by 5 to 10% compared to last year. There's still quite a bit of backlog to deal with due to the ongoing shipping crisis, which has created a limited supply of containers and ships to deliver the crop. Indonesia is suffering from what looks like a weak crop for the year, but this can only be confirmed after December and January numbers come through.
It is expected that crop quantities from Brazil and Mozambique will be similar to the previous year. Meanwhile, in South East Asia, rainfall threatens to impact the flowering period in Vietnam and Cambodia. We will be closely monitoring the impact in particular and will report if there's any development.
Due to Tanzania's decision to trade their RCN well beyond expectations, there is no room to keep matching market expectations. So, the overall RCN prices remain high.
After an all-time high demand for cashews in 2020, 2021's numbers have made it quite clear that we can expect continued interest and an increase in demand for cashews in the near future. It is highly unlikely that this behaviour will change in 2022 suddenly as consumers continue to favour cashews due to the health benefits they possess.
Factors that could impact this year's demand is if there are demand destruction (which is unlikely due to consumer favouritism) or supply chain issues. Expectations point to increased shelf prices.
RCN/Kernel shipments are under stress due to ongoing container availability. RCN delays may create shortages in Kernel executions.
