Insights into the Turkish Sultanas Market: An Analysis of Crop Trends & Forecasts by Cardassilaris Family
The Cardassilaris Family, a globally-recognized food brokerage renowned for its 150-year heritage in the industry of organic and conventional nuts, dried fruits, and seeds, is a tour de force in market knowledge and industry expertise. Today, we delve deep into the Turkish Sultanas Market's most recent trends, highlighting the 2022 crop while also previewing the trials and tribulations of the upcoming 2023 crop.
Transitioning from the 2021 crop season that concluded in May, TMO, Turkey's principal agricultural authority, reported that a significant 80% of the projected 2022 crop, amounting to 95,000 tons, found buyers among exporters. This substantial transaction was primarily due to the lucrative raw material prices, precipitated by an accelerating exchange rate and the challenging circumstances concerning the new crop's development.
The arrival of June ushered in an unusually high volume of rainfall, paired with a notable deficiency of sunlight. This adverse combination resulted in the rampant spread of fungal diseases, the most prevalent being "powdery mildew". The situation was worsened by substandard and ineffective spraying procedures, forcing exporters to source their requirements from TMO to avail of the enticing prices and to mitigate potential complications during the harvest period.
These unfolding events induced a marked surge in the market prices for both the residual and the forthcoming crop. After bottoming out at around 1,500 USD/ton due to the burgeoning exchange rate, market prices rebounded, rallying to levels of 1,600 USD/ton for Type 9.
An invaluable source of data, the Aegean Exporters Union Report, dated July 29th, 2023, offered a comparative analysis between the last two seasons. This comparison illustrated a robust growth of 4,500 tons in exports between the 2021 and the 2022 crops. Moreover, it revealed an average price per ton of USD 1,697 for the 2022 crop.
| Crop Year | Export Period | Total Exported | Average Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 01.09.2022 - 29.07.2023 | 236,304 tons | USD 1,697 |
| 2021 | 01.09.2021 - 29.07.2022 | 231,960 tons | USD 1,760 |
Going beyond the numbers, the report also provided insights into the broader market trends and factors impacting the pricing dynamics. For instance, it discussed how the increased demand, combined with the challenges in production, pushed prices upward. It also highlighted the influence of external factors such as the global economic climate and its effects on the exchange rates.
However, the journey towards the 2023 crop has not been without hurdles. Damaging frost in late March, compounded by heavy rains in June that resulted in various diseases, led to significant loss of grape produce. Furthermore, severe hail damage in certain areas during this period amplified the challenges.
| Category | Quantity |
|---|---|
| Estimated Total Quantity | 340-350,000 tons |
| Carry over from 2021 crop | 50,000 tons |
| Registered Quantity (dated 01.08.2023) | 340,000 tons |
| Exported quantity (dated 29.07.2023) | 236,000 tons |
| Estimated Domestic Consumption/year | 40-50,000 tons |
| Estimated remaining quantity on the hands of farmers and traders | 5-10,000 tons |
These obstacles have contributed to an anticipated drop in the crop yield by about 20-25%, thereby leaving an estimated total harvest of 250,000 tons. Despite this decline, we can take solace in the fact that the carryover from TMO's purchases, roughly 50-60,000 tons, should guarantee sufficient stock for the approaching season.
Market speculation hints at a possible shortage that could reach up to 40%. Should this prove true, the implications could extend beyond mere availability, also affecting the quality of the sultanas. The upcoming harvesting period, set to kick off in mid-to-late August and extend until the end of September, is of utmost importance. Its success hinges on a rain-free window during this time.
It's becoming increasingly clear that the prices for the 2023 crop will exceed those of the prior year. The exact extent of this escalation remains dependent on the final yield and TMO's pricing strategy. Given the high inflation rates currently plaguing Turkey, our projection suggests that TMO will announce the price to be around 35-40 TL.
Words often fall short when it comes to accurately depicting the impact of agricultural diseases. To truly comprehend the scope of damage caused by the powdery mildew, we invite you to peruse through these images captured directly from the afflicted vineyards. These photos, a testament to the challenges we confront, underscore the determination of our farmers and the resilience of our industry.
As we strive to navigate these challenges, we, the Cardassilaris Family, remain dedicated to ensuring transparency and providing you with the most accurate, up-to-date information. We look forward to continuing our journey together, building upon our shared passion for quality produce and sustained growth
