Peanut Market Update March 2022 Week 9

While the supply chain is not the biggest issue facing the peanut market, with a chunk of the 2021 crop still left in circulation, there is a growing sense that the market has miscalculated the total yield of this year. 

The hope was to sustain the level of production of the previous year. Still, with competing products offering better value, this might not be the case. It will be interesting to see what the final numbers are, but a slight look at the numbers can be a cause of worry. 

Is There a Decline in Peanut Plantation?

Compared to 2020, 2021 saw a 5% decline in land being used to cultivate peanuts in the US. A substantial factor that could influence and tilt all of these estimates is the growing price of fertilizer. If the markets see price hikes in fertilizers, that might encourage more production of peanuts compared to other products. 

While the fertilizers play a role, China has dropped 70% off its peanut and peanut-related products imports. While there is still global demand, it is doubtful that any player could plug in that demand for the US market. At the same time, the European spot market has seen a continuous rise. It remains to be seen if this is a consolidation period against the recent runs in the European market or if this trend would continue. 

Updates on the Argentinian Market 

The weather has been kind to the Argentinian crop. If conditions continue to sustain, it is expected that they will match their average yields. 

Predicting the market at this time is a game of chance. Supply chain miscalculations may have initially sparked a sense of fear forcing buyers to stock up-which did not happen-and the fall in demand has, in a sense, stagnated the peanut market. This month's numbers should paint a better picture of what is in store.