Pecan Market Update October 2021
This year's North American crop is expected to be around 550 million lbs.+ with a US crop of 312 million lbs. and a Mexican crop of 240 million lbs. The harvest typically starts in October and finishes in December (occasionally stretching into January). In contrast to other US tree nuts, the pecan harvest occurs across a wide geographic area, causing a longer harvest season. Early signs point to a delayed harvest this year, but the quality is expected to be better than last season.
It has been a very busy September with inquiries for both current and new crops. Some sizes are still available for prompt shipment from the current crop, but availability decreases as the market heads towards the new crop and the contracting season.
What The Forecast Is
Due to current crop assessments, likely demand from the Chinese market, and global consumption. Inventory levels are low in the Chinese market. With a smaller than originally estimated South African crop, we expect demand to be high for the first available US crop (and purchased at a premium price).
A general price increase for all pecan sizes, emphasizing pecan halves, will likely continue for the rest of the season and into the new crop. The first available new crop will likely continue to command a premium, and with a possible delayed harvest, we recommend that all buyers cover well into Q1 2022.
