Turkish Sultana Harvest: Quality & Price Shifts
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 2024 CROP HARVEST UPDATE
The 2024 sultana crop is nearing completion, with approximately 98% of the harvest wrapped up. However, the season encountered unexpected delays due to intense rainfall, which has affected both the quantity and quality of the crop. Consequently, lighter-colored sultanas are in short supply, while darker varieties dominate the market. This shift has resulted in noticeable price disparities between Type 8 and Type 9 sultanas, creating a broader gap than seen in previous seasons.
DETAILED OVERVIEW
The harvest is almost fully completed, but unexpected weather events significantly impacted the process. Two major rains, on September 1 and September 11, led to flooding throughout the growing regions, which disrupted the harvest timeline and adversely affected crop quality. While lighter-colored sultanas are now difficult to source, darker varieties, like Type 7 and 8, are more widely available.
The most immediate impacts of the rains included mold and high moisture levels in some parts of the crop, leading to quality concerns. As a result, the alcohol sector is expected to absorb around 25,000 - 30,000 tons of lower-quality produce, which will relieve pressure on the higher-grade market and provide alternative outlets for less desirable stock.
PRICE TRENDS AND QUALITY
- Type 9 sultanas: Limited supply has kept prices steady at around 102-103 TL/kg or USD 3.450 – 3.500 per ton FOB Izmir.
- Type 8 sultanas: Prices have fallen more than anticipated, currently at 95-97 TL/kg or USD 3.325 – 3.375 per ton FOB Izmir.
- This season, the price gap between Type 8 and Type 9 is substantially wider than in previous years, primarily due to quality variations and market demand.
ESTIMATED CROP SIZE AND QUALITY INSIGHTS
This year, the total crop size is estimated to be around 250,000 tons, with a larger proportion being darker-colored varieties. Due to the quality issues stemming from the rains, high-grade, light-colored raw materials are scarce and are expected to command a premium in the market. The alcohol sector’s interest in acquiring lower-quality produce helps to support stability within the sultana market by removing these lower grades from broader circulation.
The updated berry count standards for Turkish sultanas now categorize the sizes as follows:
· Jumbo: less than 200 berries/100g
· Standard: 201-260 berries/100g
· Medium: 261-360 berries/100g
· Small: 361-500 berries/100g
· Very Small: more than 501 berries/100g
Due to the prevalence of larger berries this season, medium and small-sized berries are limited, resulting in a wider price gap between these sizes.
DOMESTIC MARKET AND EXPORT OUTLOOK
Domestic consumption is forecasted to be between 50,000 and 60,000 tons. With the added demand from the alcohol sector, the potential export volume stands at approximately 180,000 to 190,000 tons, which is a 10% decrease from the previous year. If domestic demand, particularly from the alcohol industry, continues to absorb large quantities, we could see prices holding steady or potentially declining by 25-30% if exports are reduced to this level. However, it is expected that prices will remain stable in Turkish lira due to an overall constrained supply.
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS WITH PREVIOUS SEASONS
Between September 1 and September 28, 2024, the total exports reached 17,715 tons, averaging USD 3,315 per ton. In contrast, the same period in 2023 saw 24,519 tons exported at an average of USD 1,766 per ton. This shift indicates both a significant reduction in quantity and a notable increase in price year-over-year.
For the current season, the following key figures provide insight:
· Estimated Total Quantity: 250,000 tons
· Registered Quantity (as of October 1, 2024): 21,000 tons
· Exported Quantity (as of September 28, 2024): 18,000 tons
· Estimated Domestic Consumption: 50,000 - 60,000 tons
· Remaining Stock: 110,000 - 120,000 tons held by farmers and traders
MARKET DYNAMICS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK
Given the rising costs of production and the inflationary pressures within Turkey, many farmers are looking to push prices higher. Meanwhile, importers expect that Turkish sultana prices may need to adjust downwards to stay competitive with other producing countries, such as China and Iran.
With a total crop size around 250,000 tons and significant domestic demand from the alcohol sector, it is unlikely that we will see substantial price decreases in the short term. Stability in Turkish lira is likely as the market navigates the delicate balance between limited supply and moderate demand, especially from the international market.
