Almond Market Update: October’s Robust Performance Shapes a Steady Outlook

Executive Summary

The latest October Position Report from the Almond Board of California provides a comprehensive overview of the 2024 crop year. While receipts hit record levels, domestic shipments surged to their best performance in years. Export shipments and commitments showcased mixed trends but remain indicative of a resilient market. Pricing stability has emerged as a key theme, supported by strong sales and consistent buyer confidence.

October Receipts Show Record Growth

October receipts reached an impressive 810.28 million pounds, a 14.3% rise compared to the same month last year. Cumulative receipts for the crop year now stand at 1.845 billion pounds, a 38.3% increase from the previous year. This growth is largely attributed to a swift and efficient harvest across California, facilitated by favorable conditions and early start times.

 A lower carryover inventory at the handler level prompted expedited movement from hullers to ensure supply chain continuity. While the October figure is anticipated to be the peak for this season, a gradual decline in receipts is expected in November and December. Despite the brisk pace of collection, the overall crop size is still projected to finalize below 2.8 billion pounds, with clarity expected by January. 

Shipments: Strength at Home, Challenges Abroad

October shipments reached 258.4 million pounds, slightly under expectations of 280 million pounds but still 4.5% higher than the same period last year. This marked the strongest month for shipments in 18 months, reinforcing optimism in market performance. 

Domestic shipments stood out as a major highlight, increasing by 18.2% to 67.44 million pounds—the best monthly result in over two years. This rebound was anticipated following a subdued September, and similar figures are expected to continue through the remainder of the crop year. 

Export shipments, totaling 191.00 million pounds, reflected a slight 0.3% year-on-year increase. While the Middle East showed sustained demand, other key regions faced hurdles:

- India: Limited early-season activity has led to reduced shipment volumes, but diminishing local inventories are likely to revive interest in the coming months. 

- Europe: A 9% year-on-year decline was notable, driven in part by logistical delays, including vessel rollovers from late October to November. This shortfall is expected to tighten local stocks, potentially driving renewed demand from California suppliers.

Sales and Commitments: Pricing Remains Well-Supported

October sales were robust, reaching 264.74 million pounds—a 5.6% year-on-year increase. This growth included a 4% rise in domestic sales (71.25 million pounds) and a 6% increase in export sales (193.49 million pounds). These figures demonstrate continued alignment between market demand and California’s pricing strategy, bolstering confidence among both buyers and sellers.

 Total commitments for the crop year stand at 673.69 million pounds, slightly lower than last year’s 677.47 million pounds. Export markets are comparatively better positioned than domestic ones in terms of coverage. California’s strategy of limiting commitments to three-month periods has ensured stable supply levels while maintaining pricing leverage.

Uncommitted inventory, at 997.09 million pounds, reflects a 32.4% increase over last year. As the harvest progresses, this figure is expected to rise further, balancing commitments and ensuring ample supply. 

Market Outlook: Stability with Gradual Growth

The October Position Report signals continued strength for California almonds. Despite challenges in specific export markets, the overall tone remains positive, supported by record receipts, strong domestic shipments, and firm sales figures. The gradual acceptance of higher pricing in both domestic and export markets suggests stable trends through the end of the calendar year.

Looking ahead, the industry’s attention will shift to the finalization of the crop size in January, which will play a critical role in shaping market dynamics. Until then, expectations are for steady pricing with potential for slight upward adjustments, driven by strong demand and measured supply management.