Global Walnut Production Trends for 2024/2025

Executive Summary

The walnut production forecast for 2024/2025 reveals mixed trends across major producing countries, highlighting shifts that could significantly influence market dynamics and pricing. This report provides a comprehensive comparison with the 2023/2024 season, shedding light on key changes and their potential impacts on global supply and demand.

Overview of Walnut Production Changes

Key Production Changes by Country:

  • USA:

    • Decrease in crop output from 747,000 MT to 671,000 MT.

    • Reduction in total supply from 874,000 MT to 763,500 MT.

    • Ending stock is projected to decrease from 92,500 MT to 75,000 MT.

  • Chile:

    • Crop production has dropped from 181,648 MT to 134,576 MT.

    • Total supply decreased from 183,548 MT to 135,118 MT.

    • Ending stock significantly reduced from 542 MT to 400 MT.

  • Ukraine:

    • Increase in crop from 78,000 MT to 87,300 MT.

    • Slight increase in total supply from 86,000 MT to 89,300 MT.

    • Ending stock rises from 2,000 MT to 2,600 MT.

  • China:

    • Crop production increased from 1,350,000 MT to 1,500,000 MT.

    • Total supply up from 1,470,000 MT to 1,550,000 MT.

    • Ending stock doubled from 50,000 MT to 100,000 MT.

  • Romania:

    • Crop output increased from 34,500 MT to 40,000 MT.

    • Total supply increased from 37,500 MT to 41,000 MT.

    • Ending stock rises from 1,000 MT to 1,200 MT.

  • Moldova:

    • Crop production rose from 18,100 MT to 20,800 MT.

    • Total supply up from 18,100 MT to 21,300 MT.

    • Ending stock increased from 500 MT to 600 MT.

Market Implications

Potential Pricing Impacts:

  • Tighter Markets and Price Increases: The reductions in total supply and ending stocks in major producers like the USA and Chile may push walnut prices higher, particularly if global demand remains steady or grows.

  • Mitigating Factors: Increases in production and ending stocks in countries like Ukraine, China, Romania, and Moldova could help stabilize or slightly increase prices, especially if these regions enhance their export capabilities.

Strategic Considerations

For Producers and Marketers:

  • Monitoring global production shifts is crucial for adjusting supply chain strategies and pricing models.

  • Engaging with markets showing growth in production could be beneficial to leverage lower prices and increased availability.

For Consumers:

  • The potential price fluctuations could affect purchasing decisions; staying informed will be key to navigating the market.

Conclusion

The 2024/2025 season is shaping up to be pivotal for the global walnut industry, with significant production variations across countries influencing market conditions. Stakeholders should prepare for a dynamic trading environment, with strategic adjustments likely necessary to capitalize on these global shifts.

Julia ManolakakiWalnuts