2024/2025 Hazelnut Market Forecast: Production and Pricing Dynamics

Executive Summary

The anticipated growth in hazelnut production from leading producers like Turkey and Italy in the 2024/2025 season is set to reshape the dynamics of the global hazelnut market. While the intrinsic high quality of Turkish and Italian hazelnuts may sustain their premium market prices, the projected increase in overall global supply could introduce downward pressure on prices, affecting various key players across the industry, including Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Projected Production Changes and Market Effects

1. Turkey:

  • Crop Size Increase: Production is expected to rise from 650,000 metric tons (MT) to 785,000 MT.

  • Supply and Stock Enhancements: Total supply will likely reach 920,000 MT, with ending stocks climbing to 150,000 MT.

2. Italy:

  • Significant Production Growth: Projected to increase from 87,300 MT to 139,400 MT.

  • Supply and Ending Stocks Rise: Anticipated total supply of 141,400 MT and ending stocks of 5,000 MT.

3. USA:

  • Stable Production: A modest increase from 84,500 MT to 87,500 MT.

  • Consistent Ending Stocks: Expected to remain around 1,000 MT.

4. Georgia:

  • Production Increase: Crop production forecasted to grow from 40,000 MT to 50,000 MT.

  • Reduced Ending Stocks: Likely to decrease to 1,000 MT, indicating a rise in either local consumption or exports.

5. Azerbaijan:

  • Crop Size Growth: Increase from 65,000 MT to 70,000 MT.

  • Stable Supply and Stocks: Total supply and ending stocks are projected to remain at 74,000 MT and 4,000 MT, respectively.

Implications for Global Pricing

  • Moderated Price Impact: Despite the premium quality of hazelnuts from Turkey and Italy, the supply increase is expected to cause mild price reductions globally.

  • Market Dynamics: All major hazelnut-producing regions, including Georgia and Azerbaijan, may face downward pricing pressures, particularly if they compete within similar quality or market segments.

  • Regional Effects: The ability of producers in Georgia and Azerbaijan to withstand price reductions will depend significantly on their marketing strategies and product differentiation.

Conclusion

The projected increases in hazelnut production from Turkey and Italy are poised to bring about significant changes in global market conditions, potentially leading to moderated prices. High-quality producers may face less severe impacts, but other regions will need to strategically navigate the evolving market landscape. Emphasizing product differentiation and targeted marketing will be crucial for maintaining competitiveness in this changing environment.

Julia ManolakakiHazelnuts