November Almond Industry Report: Strong Export Momentum and Receipt Insights

The Almond Board of California published its November Position Report on December 17, 2024, marking the fourth update for the current crop year. The report revealed critical developments in receipts, shipments, and market dynamics, reflecting a strong global performance despite certain fluctuations.

 Receipts: Slower Than Anticipated 

November receipts reached 496.89 million lbs., reflecting a 6.8% decline compared to the 532.91 million lbs. received during the same month last year. However, cumulative crop receipts for the season reached 2.342 billion lbs., showcasing a robust 25.4% increase over last year’s 1.867 billion lbs.

Industry expectations suggested higher receipt levels, with projections that 90% of the crop would be processed by this point. Current data places the total crop size between 2.6 billion lbs. and 2.76 billion lbs., effectively ruling out a final crop above 2.8 billion lbs. A clearer picture of the final total will emerge in the next monthly report.

Shipments: Record November Performance

Shipments in November exceeded expectations, reaching 271.38 million lbs., well above the projected 230 million lbs. This number reflects a 13.9% increase over November 2023’s 238.28 million lbs. and surpassed the previous November record of 263 million lbs. from the 2020 crop year.

Export markets drove much of this growth:

                  •               Europe: Delivered its strongest shipment month on record, fueled by demand to replenish low stocks. Although YTD shipments to Europe remain 3% lower than last year, further purchasing activity is anticipated in the coming months.

                  •               Middle East: Exhibited strong performance, particularly with increased shipments to Turkey.

                  •               India: Continued to focus on local inventories, resulting in a third consecutive month of reduced shipments. YTD shipments to India are now down 23% compared to last year, but restocking is expected as local supplies diminish.

                  •               China: Shipments remained subdued as buyers seek almonds from regions unaffected by tariffs.

Domestic shipments, however, presented a contrasting picture, falling 9.8% year-over-year to 54.44 million lbs. compared to 60.37 million lbs. in November 2023. While November’s dip was notable, year-to-date domestic shipments have declined only 0.75%, with expectations for a recovery in December.

Sales and Commitments: Steady but Seasonal 

Sales for November reached 209.46 million lbs., a modest 0.6% increase from last year’s 208.22 million lbs.. Although overall sales remained solid, the Thanksgiving holiday shortened the business month, leading to lower volumes compared to earlier in the crop year.

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 611.77 million lbs., representing a 5.5% decline compared to 647.42 million lbs. at this time last year. Industry participants remain cautious about selling beyond the next three months due to uncertainties surrounding the post-bloom market. December commitments may trend lower due to slower holiday sales and limited interest in long-term agreements.

Uncommitted inventory for the crop year now totals 1.275 billion lbs., an increase of 19.4% compared to last year’s 1.067 billion lbs. This figure is expected to stabilize in the coming months as crop receipts are finalized and inventory levels begin to decline. 

Market Dynamics and Future Expectations 

The November report highlighted key positive trends, particularly in export markets, which have been crucial in maintaining stable almond pricing. Europe led the way with its record shipment activity, and India is expected to follow suit as its local stocks deplete. The Middle East remains another strong buyer, contributing to robust global demand.

Domestically, while November’s shipments were weaker, they are projected to rebound as holiday consumption boosts activity. Steady demand across most regions, coupled with favorable export growth, is likely to keep almond prices firm through February’s bloom period.

The final size of the 2024 crop will become clearer in the next monthly report, but current figures suggest a range between 2.6 billion lbs. and 2.76 billion lbs. Significant pricing shifts are not anticipated in the short term, as the market remains supported by strong demand and controlled supply dynamics.