Turkish Sultanas Market Update: Stability Amidst Challenges in the 2024 Crop Year
The Turkish sultanas market has entered a more stable pricing phase after a season marked by significant fluctuations. While a dramatic price increase was unlikely due to the already high levels compared to competing origins, a significant decrease was also improbable given the limited crop size. Below is an overview of the latest developments in the 2024 crop year, providing a clear picture of current market conditions and trends.
2024 Crop: Pricing Stability and Market Dynamics
Since the conclusion of the harvest season, raw material prices have stabilized at approximately 100 TL. However, notable price differences between Type 8 and Type 9sultanas persist, a trend not seen in previous years. Here’s how the current pricing landscape looks:
• Type 9 Sultanas
• Raw material price: 103–104 TL (~$2.925–2.950 USD/kg; USD/TL rate: 35.2)
• Market price: $3,450–3,500 USD/ton FOB Izmir
• Type 8 Sultanas
• Raw material price: 99–100 TL (~$2.800–2.825 USD/kg; USD/TL rate: 35.2)
• Market price: $3,300–3,350 USD/ton FOB Izmir
A Market Divided: Farmers vs. Exporters and Importers
The Turkish sultanas market faces conflicting views regarding pricing:
• Farmers’ Perspective: Farmers believe that raw material prices should be higher, referencing the previous season’s peak price of 120 TL and citing rising production costs driven by inflation.
• Exporters and Importers’ Perspective: Exporters and importers, on the other hand, are advocating for lower prices. They point to the substantial price gap between Turkish sultanas and those from other origins, as well as the declining export volumes, as reasons for their position.
Season Outlook: Weather as the Deciding Factor
The trajectory of raw material prices for the remainder of the season will largely depend on weather conditions in March and April. Two potential scenarios could unfold:
• Positive Scenario: Favorable weather could result in a better crop yield. Combined with the ongoing decline in export volumes, this could drive raw material prices downward.
• Negative Scenario: If frost damage occurs during the critical growing period, the quantity of the new crop would be significantly reduced. This would not only prevent prices from falling but could also lead to further price increases on the raw material side.
Export Trends: A Notable Decline
Exports of Turkish sultanas have decreased by 30% compared to the previous season, with weekly export volumes averaging approximately 3,000 tons. If this trend continues, Turkey’s total export volume for the season is projected to reach a maximum of 160,000–170,000 tons.
The latest data from the Aegean Exporters Union, as of December 31, 2024, provides a clear comparison of export figures and pricing across the last two crop years:
• 2024 Crop (01.09.2024–04.01.2025):
• Exported: 66,629 tons
• Average price: USD 3,495/ton
• 2023 Crop (01.09.2023–04.01.2024):
• Exported: 95,123 tons
• Average price: USD 2,007/ton
This represents a reduction of 29,000 tons compared to the 2023 crop and 5,000 tons less than the 2022 crop.
2024 Crop at a Glance: Key Numbers
The following figures summarize the overall situation for the 2024 crop year:
• Estimated total crop quantity: 250,000 tons
• Carryover from 2023 crop: None
• Registered quantity (as of 01.01.2025): 121,000 tons
• Exported quantity (as of 04.01.2025): 65,500 tons
• Estimated domestic consumption per year: 50,000–60,000 tons
• Estimated remaining quantity held by farmers and traders: 80,000–90,000 tons
Conclusion: A Delicate Balance of Supply and Demand
The Turkish sultanas market is currently navigating a complex environment of stable prices, lower export volumes, and divided stakeholder perspectives. While the 2024 crop year started with limited supply, current raw material prices remain steady, and market conditions are influenced by high inflation and global competitiveness.
Weather patterns in the coming months will play a decisive role in shaping the future of the market. Favorable conditions could lead to more competitive pricing, while adverse weather events could tighten supply and push prices higher.
With export trends showing a considerable decline compared to previous years, the coming months will be critical in determining how Turkey’s sultanas market balances its supply-demand equation. This combination of market forces will likely continue to support current price levels in the short term.
