Current Trends in the Almond Market: Insights from the April Position Report

Executive Summary

The Almond Board of California has released its April Position Report, providing valuable insights into the state of the 2023 crop year. Despite lower receipts, both shipments and sales have shown strong performance, surpassing industry expectations. The report highlights the tight supply of uncommitted inventory and anticipates a robust end to the crop year, with positive projections for the upcoming 2024 crop.

Receipts

  • April Receipts: 1.90 million pounds, down 91.7% from last April's 22.74 million pounds.

  • Yearly Outlook: Receipts are concluding, unlikely to surpass 2.45 billion pounds for the year.

Shipments

  • Total Shipments: 241.48 million pounds in April, exceeding industry expectations of 220 million pounds, up 22.4% from last year.

  • Domestic Shipments: 64.81 million pounds, marking the highest domestic shipment number of the crop year.

    • Up 22.4% from last year's 56.82 million pounds.

    • Consistent monthly range: 57 to 64 million pounds.

  • Export Shipments: 176.67 million pounds, up 25.8% from last year's 140.44 million pounds.

    • Export shipments up 5.61% year-to-date.

Sales & Commitments

  • Monthly Sales: 218.63 million pounds in April, up 90.6% from last year's 114.68 million pounds.

    • Strong sales month for California.

  • Yearly Commitments: 552.68 million pounds, down 2.12% from last year's 564.65 million pounds.

    • Steady commitments despite increased year-to-date shipments.

  • Uncommitted Inventory: 557.72 million pounds, down 29.3% from last year's 788.75 million pounds.

    • Tight available inventory, with expectations for higher prices on certain grades.

Conclusion

The 2023 almond crop year is concluding with impressive performance in shipments and sales, outpacing expectations despite lower receipts. The bullish April Position Report suggests that California will maintain firm pricing, especially for grades in short supply. While the transition to the 2024 crop year may be tight, a larger upcoming crop is anticipated, positioning California well for continued strong market presence.

Julia ManolakakiAlmonds