Global Cashew Market Update – February 2025
Cashew Market Awaits New Crop Flow Amid Quiet Trading
The global cashew market remains subdued, with limited trading activity. However, market movement is expected to pick up in the first half of February as the 2025 crop begins to flow. Inshell inventories at origin countries are relatively thin, but prices have softened due to increased supply from Tanzania.
New crop arrivals have started in Ghana, though a full-scale flow from other West African countries is still a few weeks away. In the Ivory Coast, authorities have raised the minimum buying price for cashews to 425 FCFA/Kg, up from 275 FCFA/Kg, a significant adjustment that will impact market pricing and buying strategies. The country has also extended a purchasing window exclusively for domestic processors before allowing exports, which may influence supply availability in the coming months.
Meanwhile, in Asia, early crop movements have been reported in Cambodia, while Vietnam and India are still weeks away from seeing meaningful supply.
Inshell & Kernel Market Dynamics
Inshell inventories at origin remain tight until the new crop fully enters the market. Despite this, the influx of Tanzanian inshells has helped ease pricing pressure. As additional supply from West Africa and Asia becomes available, price fluctuations may occur depending on market demand and logistics.
On the kernel side, buyers remain cautious and are mostly covering immediate needs for Q1 2025 rather than making long-term commitments. Many are waiting to assess supply dynamics before securing forward contracts. The Chinese New Year holidays led to a temporary slowdown in activity across Asian markets, but once the holiday period ends, renewed buying interest could emerge.
Regional Market Trends
China remains a key driver for cashew kernel consumption, with strong demand reported during the Chinese New Year festivities. However, the Indian market presents a contrasting picture, with weaker kernel demand and healthy inventories at key destinations.
Crop predictions suggest a better harvest compared to last year, which could alleviate supply concerns and bring additional stability to the market. However, buying and export restrictions in the Ivory Coast, along with potential policy shifts in other major producing countries, could introduce new variables affecting availability and pricing.
Market Outlook: Key Factors to Watch
The cashew market is currently navigating a phase of limited supply, cautious buying, and regional policy changes. While inshell inventories at origin remain tight, the upcoming influx of supply from West Africa and Asia could influence price movements. Buyers are waiting for clearer signals before making long-term commitments, and post-Chinese New Year market activity will be a key indicator of demand trends.
Factors Supporting Higher Prices
• Inshell inventory remains low until new crop arrivals ramp up.
• Ivory Coast has introduced stricter buying and export policies, limiting immediate supply.
• Other producing countries may implement similar measures, affecting overall availability.
• Strong kernel consumption in China during the New Year celebrations.
Factors That Could Weigh on Prices
• Demand for kernels in India remains weak.
• Destination markets currently hold ample kernel inventories.
• Crop forecasts indicate a better harvest than last year, which could increase supply.
Conclusion
The cashew market is entering a transition period as new crops begin to flow. While supply remains constrained in some areas, improved harvest forecasts and shifting market dynamics could influence pricing and demand in the coming months. Buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach, carefully monitoring supply trends before making long-term commitments. The post-Chinese New Year market reaction will be crucial in shaping the next phase of trading activity.
