Global Almond Market & Crop Update – February 2025

Almond Industry Faces Weather Challenges and Market Shifts

California’s almond industry has entered a critical phase as weather conditions and market dynamics continue to evolve. A dry January reduced the state’s snowpack levels significantly, but February brought much-needed precipitation. Northern California experienced two major rain and snowstorms, boosting the snowpack from 67% to 75% of normal. Although this improvement is a positive development, further storms are expected, coinciding with the almond bloom. The coming weeks will be crucial as growers monitor bloom conditions, which will directly impact pollination and, ultimately, the 2025 crop yield.

The industry has also been grappling with supply concerns. December crop receipts were down 35.3% from the previous year, with only 233.63 million pounds recorded compared to last year’s 360.95 million pounds. With total receipts standing at 2.576 billion pounds, expectations of reaching the projected 2.8 billion-pound estimate are dwindling. Most market participants now anticipate a final figure closer to 2.7 billion pounds. Since hullers and shellers have closed, there is little indication that additional significant volumes will be added to the system.

 Almond Prices on the Rise as Supply Tightens

Over the past three months, almond prices have steadily increased, driven by a tightening supply. Some buyers feel prices have climbed too quickly, while growers argue that previous years of unsustainably low prices have led to diminishing production. The reality lies somewhere in the middle. For several years, supply outpaced demand, pushing prices down. Now, with supply and demand aligning more closely, prices have adjusted to levels that better support growers. However, this price recovery does not necessarily signal long-term stability.

Bearing acreage has been on the decline, a trend that is not fully reflected in industry reports due to difficulties in identifying abandoned orchards. Some orchards remain classified as “bearing acreage” despite no longer being harvested. Additionally, growers are slow to remove unproductive orchards due to the financial burden involved. Meanwhile, nursery orders for new plantings have dropped significantly, signaling reduced investment in future production. These factors suggest a shift in the long-term supply outlook.

Sales, Commitments, and Market Activity

Almond shipments in December reached 233 million pounds, aligning with industry expectations. While this keeps the market on track with last year’s shipment pace, there is growing uncertainty about whether supply will be sufficient to maintain these levels in the coming months. Domestic shipments remain flat year-over-year, while export shipments have shown no significant growth.

Sales activity in December was slower compared to the previous year. Total new sales stood at 182.5 million pounds, a 16.8% decline from the 219.4 million pounds recorded in December 2023. Both domestic and export sales contributed to this decrease. One reason for the slowdown was the reluctance of growers to commit to large sales ahead of the almond bloom, preferring to assess crop conditions before making further market moves.

Commitments for the 2024 crop have also slipped, totaling 561 million pounds, down 12% from the previous year’s 637 million pounds. Many buyers have adopted a more cautious, short-term purchasing strategy, opting to buy only as needed in hopes of securing better pricing after the bloom. Meanwhile, uncommitted inventory stands at 1.321 billion pounds, a 9.9% increase from last year’s 1.202 billion pounds. As crop receipts slow down, uncommitted inventory is expected to decline in the coming months.

Market Outlook: Key Trends and Concerns

The almond industry is navigating a delicate balance between supply constraints and market demand. Shipments are on track with industry expectations, and the price recovery has provided growers with much-needed relief after years of low profitability. However, several uncertainties remain, including the potential impact of tariffs, changes in export demand, and the effect of bloom weather on pollination and yield.

With the almond bloom now underway, California is experiencing another wave of rain and cold temperatures. While this precipitation is beneficial in replenishing water reserves, poor weather conditions during bloom can negatively affect pollination, potentially limiting crop yields. The industry will closely monitor these developments in the coming weeks to gauge their impact on the 2025 harvest.

Another concern is the lagging commitments and growing uncommitted inventory. While crop receipts are lower than expected, an unexpected surge in supply or a stronger-than-anticipated bloom could put downward pressure on prices. Additionally, global trade uncertainties, particularly regarding potential tariff changes, add another layer of risk.

Conclusion

The almond market is in a state of transition. While supply constraints have driven prices higher, questions remain about long-term production capacity and market demand. Growers and buyers alike are taking a cautious approach as they wait to see how the bloom unfolds and whether market conditions shift in the coming months. The next few weeks will be critical in shaping the outlook for the 2025 crop and the overall direction of the almond industry.