Global Peanut Market: Regional Production and Supply Outlook

Executive Summary

The global peanut market is currently navigating a complex landscape with significant fluctuations in production across key regions. The focus is particularly on Argentina's harvest, which holds critical importance for European markets in the coming quarters. Concurrently, production setbacks in Brazil and delays in Argentina due to adverse weather conditions are tightening availability, influencing market dynamics significantly.

Detailed Regional Analysis

Argentina

  • 2024 Harvest Progress: Approximately 70-75% of the crop has been dug up, yet only 15% has been harvested, significantly behind the usual pace of 30%. Although initial forecasts were optimistic, recent evaluations have adjusted production expectations downward. However, Argentina is still on track to produce a substantial crop. The market's attention has shifted to Argentina due to higher prices and scarcity in Brazil, increasing pressure on Argentina's short-term supply.

  • 2025 Outlook: It's too early to determine the exact planting scale for the next season, but land rental rates remain high, suggesting sustained agricultural investment despite low soybean prices.

Brazil

  • 2024 Harvest Challenges: The country is experiencing a problematic harvest with unfavorable weather impacting both the quantity and quality of the peanut crop. Exporters are facing difficulties aligning their prices with global market expectations. Key export destinations are exploring alternatives, notably Argentine peanuts.

  • Market Questions: Critical uncertainties include Brazil’s capacity to fulfill existing European contracts and the disposition of surplus volumes, especially given the current low demand for peanut oil.

USA

  • 2024 Crop Report: The supply is tight, with most positions already sold out. Last year’s high demand from Europe has put pressure on suppliers to meet quality specifications for ongoing contracts. Canada and Mexico are actively seeking alternative sources.

  • 2025 Planting Forecasts: Expectations for the next planting season are cautiously optimistic, though specific figures remain undetermined. Market offers for the upcoming crop are fewer, indicating positive anticipation from producers.

Nicaragua

  • 2024 Season Forecast: Following a substandard crop, expectations are optimistic for the upcoming planting season, starting in June, bolstered by favorable weather predictions.

  • 2025 Prospects: There is uncertainty regarding the ability to maintain traditional planting scales due to the prior season's poor seed quality.

China

  • Current Market Activity: China is reasserting itself in the international market after a period of reduced activity, driven by successful domestic harvests and slower local demand. The ongoing planting season and future market engagement remain speculative.

  • Export Dynamics: While currently less active and positioned at higher price points than Argentina, market conditions are volatile and subject to rapid changes.

India

  • Market Positioning: India continues to offer competitive prices in its traditional markets in Southeast Asia, maintaining a strong presence despite the general opacity surrounding its agricultural forecasting.

Global Market Trends

The global peanut market is characterized by a mix of declining production in some areas contrasted with hopeful signs of recovery in others. This juxtaposition is creating a volatile environment where pricing, supply availability, and market access are constantly evolving. Strategic insights and timely updates will be crucial for stakeholders navigating this dynamic market landscape.

Julia Manolakaki