Turkish Sultana Raisin Market: 2023/2024 Overview

Executive Summary

This season presents unprecedented challenges for the Turkish Sultana Raisin market. Starting with a significant carryover, the industry now faces an unusual situation with a shortage of raw materials before the next harvest. High demand has kept export volumes steady despite soaring prices, leading to historic highs in both raw material and market prices.

2023 Crop Season Analysis

  • Surge in Prices: The cost for Type 9 raw materials has reached about 100 TL/3.10 USD per kg (exchange rate 32.3 TL/USD), equivalent to approximately 3,600 USD/ton FOB, setting a new record for the Turkish Sultana Raisin market.

  • Export Constraints: Due to the scarcity of raw materials, many exporters are unable to fulfill orders, and it's likely that some may cease operations until the next harvest season begins.

  • Strategic Release of Stock: In response to these shortages, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has decided to distribute 8,300 tons from its 2022 stock among exporters to help them meet their contractual obligations.

  • Export Volume Trends: Current export volumes show only a minor reduction from last year by about 10,000 tons. However, a significant decline is expected in the coming months, with projections indicating a potential drop of 30-40,000 tons by the start of the new season.

Looking Ahead to the 2024 Crop

  • Vineyard Observations: Early signs show that while there is a healthy number of buds, many are not bearing fruit, suggesting a possibly lower yield than normal. The expected output is around 250,000 tons.

  • Potential Risks: The crop faces several threats that could affect the final yield, including potential hailstorms, heavy rainfall during the flowering period, periodic vine diseases, extreme summer temperatures, and water scarcity.

Comparative Data and Market Outlook

  • Comparative Export Figures: Between September 1, 2023, and April 27, 2024, approximately 160,208 tons were exported at an average price of USD 2,203 per ton. This is a decrease from the previous year's 170,334 tons at USD 1,691 per ton.

  • Stock and Consumption Estimates: As of April 30, 2024, the market registered 167,250 tons, with around 160,000 tons exported and domestic consumption estimated at 40-50,000 tons per year. The remaining stock in the sector is believed to be between 3,000 and 5,000 tons.

Conclusion

The Turkish Sultana Raisin industry is navigating a particularly difficult period characterized by a significant raw material shortfall and record-high prices. The market dynamics for the 2024 crop indicate a potential for modest recovery in production volumes, though pricing pressures are likely to persist due to the anticipated below-average yield. Strategic market positioning and adaptation to these volatile conditions will be crucial for stakeholders moving forward.

Julia Manolakaki