Hazelnuts Market Update - April 2022, Week 14

TMO is expected to raise the price for in-shell hazelnuts to 41 lira/kg. There is an expectation that there will be further increases. The TMO's high prices are driven by political reasons. 

Rumors floating around regarding crop damages and the general election to be held in 2023, the state-run organization is making the most of the opportunity to drive prices up further. The costs for raw kernels may well rise to 82 lira/kg if the in-shell price rises. 

Manufacturers are wary of TMO's ambitions. They have a history with TMO in 2020, and they incurred heavy losses then. Moreover, traders expect the prices to drop this year. That is another aspect the manufacturers would be considering. Ferrero's observers and the farmers agree that the crop is unharmed and that the size is satisfactory. And while the present estimates range between 650,000-680,000 mt. The market is waiting for April to pass since there may be frost damages, and reliable estimates will be made in May. 

The EU has seen a decline of 3% in imports. This is a decline of 3% in volume from 2020 and a 10% decrease in terms of value. Though there is a yearly decline in volume, the number still holds nearly 7% higher than the five-year moving average. The decrease in value is mainly due to the depreciation of the Turkish Lira.