Pistachio Shipments and Industry Outlook
Executive Summary
The pistachio industry witnessed a 16% decline in shipments for June compared to the same month in 2023. Total shipments for the current month reached 72.3 million pounds, a significant drop from the 86.7 million pounds shipped last year. This decline was largely driven by a 23% decrease in export shipments, despite a 3.3% increase in domestic shipments.
Year-to-Date Growth
However, the year-to-date (YTD) figures present a more optimistic picture:
- Overall YTD Shipments: Over 35% ahead of last year’s numbers.
- Total YTD Shipments: 1,046.7 million pounds, up from 773 million pounds in the previous year.
- Domestic YTD Shipments: Increased by 3.2%, reaching 213.1 million pounds compared to 206.4 million pounds last year.
- Export YTD Shipments: Impressive surge of 47.1%, climbing from 566.6 million pounds to 833.6 million pounds.
The slowdown in monthly shipments is not due to a lack of demand but rather a limited supply. The industry is on the brink of the new harvest season, expected to commence in about 20 days in Arizona and approximately 40 days in California. Many industry players are currently withdrawing from the market to ensure some carry-over into the shorter 2024 crop, leading to the observed shipment reduction.
Domestic Market Improvement
One of the bright spots for the industry is the notable increase in domestic shipments. This improvement reflects the successful efforts of various processors and the strong nutritional messaging from American Pistachio Growers, which have significantly boosted domestic demand. Kernel shipments have also seen a positive trend, with year-to-date figures being 7% higher than last year, indicating strong market demand for these products.
The market remains stable as the industry anticipates the upcoming harvest. However, there are concerns about the potential impact of the extreme and prolonged heat wave in California and Arizona on the crop. While initial cuttings look promising, the situation can change rapidly, and the industry remains cautious.
International Crop Impact
On the international front, reports suggest that Turkey expects a 40-50% reduction in their 2024 pistachio crop due to severe weather conditions. This substantial reduction could influence global supply dynamics and market prices, adding another layer of uncertainty to the industry outlook.
The industry is in the final stages of wrapping up the 2023 inventory, with final availability details expected next week. Given the low carry-in stocks, the anticipated smaller 2024 crop, and early demand driven by the Chinese New Year, it is expected that the remaining inventory will sell quickly.
Conclusion
In summary, while the June shipment figures indicate a temporary slowdown, the overall year-to-date performance remains robust. The industry is navigating supply constraints and weather-related challenges while maintaining a stable market outlook as it prepares for the new harvest season.
