Almond Market Report: June 2023 - Record Growth and Stability
The June Position Report from the Almond Board of California highlights substantial growth in almond receipts and shipments for the 2023 crop year, suggesting a stable market outlook. Below are the key points from the report:
Receipts
• June Receipts: 6.10 million lbs. (an increase of 156% compared to last June’s 2.40 million lbs.)
• Projected Final Receipts: Just below 2.45 billion lbs.
Shipments
Total shipments for June reached 206.16 million lbs., falling short of the industry forecast of 220 million lbs. Nevertheless, this figure is a 10.48% increase over June of the previous year. Should the industry match last July’s shipments of 186.67 million lbs., the carry-out could be under 450 million lbs. Year-to-date (YTD) shipments have risen by 5.66%, making this goal attainable.
Domestic shipments were 62.02 million lbs., a slight rise of 1.93% over last year’s 60.85 million lbs. After strong performances in April and May, domestic shipments have returned to normal levels. There is still a chance for domestic shipments to end the crop year up YTD for the first time since the 2020/2021 crop year, with an increase of 2.29%.
Export shipments totaled 144.14 million lbs., up 14.62% compared to last year’s 125.76 million lbs. YTD, export shipments have grown by 6.95%, outpacing the previous year. All major destination markets, excluding Western Europe, saw increases in June. India and the Middle East exhibited the strongest growth both for the month and YTD.
Sales & Commitments
• Total Sales for the Month: 92.37 million lbs. (a decrease of 40% from last year’s 154.69 million lbs.)
• New Crop Sales: 98.16 million lbs. (strong for the second consecutive month)
• New Crop Commitments: 271.28 million lbs. (an increase of 121.66% from last year’s 122.39 million lbs.)
• Total Sales for the Month: 190.53 million lbs.
Commitments for the 2023 crop year are at 347.02 million lbs., a 23% decrease from last year’s 451.04 million lbs. As the crop year ends, commitments continue to decline. However, total commitments for the 2023 and 2024 crop years amount to 618.30 million lbs., a 7.82% increase from last year’s 573.43 million lbs.
Uncommitted Inventory
• Current Uncommitted Inventory: 337.52 million lbs. (a decrease of 35.72% from last year’s 525.05 million lbs.)
• Adjustments: An additional ~54 million lbs. of loss and exemption to be accounted for at the end of the crop year (current reject rate is 4.23% vs. the budgeted 2.00%)
• Much of the uncommitted inventory is likely lower-grade products rather than standard USDA grade almonds.
Conclusion
The June Position Report supports the optimistic outlook from the recent Objective Estimate of 2.8 billion lbs. With this estimate and a projected carry-out of less than 450 million lbs., the total supply for the upcoming crop year is expected to remain steady, bringing needed stability to the almond industry. The final carry-out will depend on July shipments, detailed in the Final Position Report for the 2023 crop year. As the 2024 crop harvest in California approaches, the focus shifts to weather and harvest conditions, positioning the almond market for a balanced and stable year ahead.
