Global Peanut Market Update – February 2025
US Peanut Production Increases Despite Declining Yields
The USDA has released its final production report for the 2024 US peanut crop, confirming a total output of 3,224,010 tons of inshell farmer stock. This marks a 9.7% increase compared to the 2023 crop, largely driven by an expansion in harvested acreage. A total of 1,758,000 acres were harvested in 2024, representing a 12.9% increase from the previous year. However, despite the higher acreage, yield per acre declined for the third consecutive year, averaging just 3,668 lbs., the lowest since 2016.
The downward yield trend raises concerns about long-term productivity and crop quality, with many growers struggling due to limited crop rotation. While supply levels remain adequate but not excessive, continued yield reductions could present future challenges for both growers and processors.
Domestic and Export Demand: A Mixed Picture
Overall domestic peanut demand remains stable, with minimal fluctuation year-over-year. The latest Peanut Stocks and Processing Report shows that US manufacturer usage is down by only 0.1% compared to the previous year. However, export demand has weakened significantly, with US peanut exports down 15.7% year-over-year. The most notable decline has been in shipments to the European Union, which have plummeted by 60.7%—a decline that was largely anticipated.
The USDA currently projects carryout stocks for the 2024 crop to reach 811,000 tons by July 31, 2025, reflecting a 9.5% increase from the 2023 crop carryout. However, many industry analysts believe the USDA’s demand estimates may be overly optimistic, suggesting that actual carryout stocks could range between 925,000 and 950,000 tons. Despite the increase, this level of carryout is still considered manageable, avoiding any significant oversupply concerns.
Planting Intentions & Market Pricing
Looking ahead to the 2025 planting season, most market participants expect peanut acreage in the US to remain similar to last year or slightly higher. This is primarily due to weak cotton prices, as cotton is the primary competing crop for peanut acreage. A clearer picture will emerge in March, when official planting intentions are published.
Market activity has been relatively quiet in recent weeks. Current crop prices for APSA spec negative aflatoxin redskin peanuts remain in the low $0.60 per pound range. Meanwhile, early pricing indications for the 2025 crop (available in late fall 2025) suggest prices in the upper $0.50s to near $0.60 per pound.
Market Outlook: Key Trends & Risks
Factors That Could Support Prices
• The declining yield trend remains a concern, raising questions about long-term productivity.
• Limited crop rotation could lead to potential quality issues, affecting future supply.
• Grower financial stability is emerging as a significant challenge, potentially impacting future planting decisions.
Factors That Could Weigh on Prices
• Sluggish domestic demand and weakening export volumes may limit price movement.
• Tariff uncertainties and ongoing trade tensions could further impact global demand.
• A potential increase in US peanut acreage in 2025 could lead to higher production, adding supply pressure.
• Possible growth in global peanut production may increase competition in international markets.
Conclusion
The US peanut market is currently navigating a period of stable but subdued demand, coupled with rising production and declining yields. While the 2024 crop size is larger than last year, weaker exports and manageable carryout stocks suggest that supply levels remain under control. Pricing remains relatively stable, though industry participants are closely monitoring upcoming planting intentions and the potential impact of global production trends.
With uncertainties surrounding future demand, grower financial health, and possible tariff impacts, the peanut market remains in a cautious state, awaiting clearer signals on planting trends and global trade dynamics.
