Global Macadamia Market Update – February 2025
Macadamia Market Grows Amid Sustainability Trends and Supply Challenges
The global macadamia market continues to expand, driven by the growing consumer preference for healthy snacks and plant-based foods. Industry projections estimate the market will reach USD 1.79 billion in 2025, with rising demand from Asia-Pacific and North America playing a key role.
Sustainability has become a crucial factor in the industry, with producers increasingly adopting organic farming practices and ethical certifications to differentiate themselves. However, tariff changes and supply chain disruptions remain challenges, affecting both pricing and export flows in key markets.
China, one of the largest consumers of macadamias, was highly active in early 2024, sourcing nut-in-shell (NIS) from Australia, South Africa, and Kenya. However, with its own crop harvested in Q4 2024, China appears to have sufficient stock to meet its Chinese New Year demand, leaving it with a modest opening inventory. The consumption patterns in China over the next few months will play a major role in shaping pricing and demand for the 2025 crop.
Regional Market Insights
South Africa
South Africa’s 2025 macadamia crop is expected to be 10% larger than the previous year’s production, with harvesting beginning in March/April. The increase is attributed to favorable flowering conditions and the maturation of new plantations. However, despite higher production forecasts, exporters remain cautious due to weaker demand from China and price uncertainties compared to last year.
In 2024, the South African Macadamia Association (SAMAC) revised its crop forecast to 83,726 metric tons (NIS at 1.5% moisture) for Q2 2024, reflecting a 7% decrease from initial Q1 projections. Meanwhile, kernel demand remained strong in many regions, leading to higher kernel prices in Q3 and Q4 of 2024. With carryover stocks at very low levels, the combination of increased production and limited inventory could keep prices firm in the short term.
Australia
The 2025 Australian macadamia crop is forecasted to grow by 11.1%, supported by favorable growing conditions in key regions such as Bundaberg and New South Wales (NSW). However, mixed weather conditions, including high temperatures and heavy rainfall in parts of Southeast Queensland and Northern NSW, pose risks during harvest.
The entry of young macadamia trees into production is expected to further boost yields, contributing to the overall growth of the Australian crop. Market activity is anticipated to pick up in February and March, as demand from China becomes clearer.
Kenya
Kenya has introduced a ban on macadamia inshell harvesting until March 25, 2025, aiming to ensure proper nut maturity and improve quality standards. This decision follows concerns over premature harvesting in previous years, which affected nut quality and processing volumes.
The Kenyan macadamia industry faced challenges in 2024, with high farmgate prices driven by Chinese demand leading to disruptions in processing and kernel exports. The government’s regulatory measures aim to stabilize the market and protect local processors from excessive external competition.
Market Outlook: Key Trends and Risks
Factors That Could Support Prices
• Kernel and nut-in-shell inventories remain critically low, putting upward pressure on prices.
• The next major harvest will only begin in April/May, meaning any sustained demand in the next three months could keep prices firm or push them higher.
• Kenya’s harvesting ban (November 2024 – March 2025) has reduced export volumes, further tightening the global kernel supply.
• Global shipments and demand for macadamia kernels continue to show resilience, supporting a healthy market outlook.
Factors That Could Weigh on Prices
• China’s recent harvest and its strong in-shell stock coverage for the Chinese New Year may dampen demand for imported macadamias in 2025.
• The high price of macadamia kernels may lead to increased substitution by lower-priced nuts, reducing macadamia demand in price-sensitive markets.
Conclusion
The macadamia market is poised for steady growth, with rising demand in Asia-Pacific and North America supporting its expansion. However, regional supply dynamics, Chinese buying behavior, and government regulations will shape the 2025 market outlook.
With low carryover stocks, production increases in key regions, and global supply chain challenges, market participants are closely watching China’s post-New Year demand, as well as the impact of Kenya’s harvesting restrictions on global supply.
The coming months will be critical in determining price trends and export market activity, making it essential to monitor regional developments.
