Global Pistachio Market Update – February 2025

Pistachio Supply Tightens as Shipments Decline

The global pistachio market is experiencing a notable shift as supply constraints and changing demand patterns influence pricing and trade activity. Crop receipts for the 2024 pistachio season stand at 1.11 billion pounds, with a carry-in of 185 million pounds from the previous crop, bringing total gross inventory to 1.29 billion pounds. However, after accounting for shrinkage and processing losses, the adjusted inventory sits at 1.25 billion pounds—a 22% decline compared to last year’s availability.

The supply shortage is further intensified by limited shelling stock and a tight supply of closed-shell pistachios, which has reduced the availability of kernels. This tightening supply is expected to support firm pricing in the near term, particularly for kernels.

Domestic & Export Demand Trends

Domestic pistachio demand has shown signs of saturation, with December shipments totaling 19 million pounds, slightly lower than November’s 20 million pounds. Total domestic shipments for the season have reached 81 million pounds, reflecting a 2.5% year-over-year decline.

However, the most significant slowdown has been in export shipments, which reached 60 million pounds in December, only 42% of the previous month’s export volume. Total export shipments for the season now stand at 319 million pounds, representing a 34.2% decline compared to last year.

The primary driver behind the drop in export demand has been a weaker Chinese market, which has not matched last year’s buying activity. Several factors contribute to this slowdown, including:

• High opening prices discouraging early-season purchases.

• Trade policy uncertainties impacting market sentiment.

• An earlier-than-usual Lunar New Year, which may have shifted traditional purchasing patterns.

Despite lower shipments, inventory levels remain stable at 850 million pounds, largely due to revised shrinkage adjustments that have minimized overall losses.

Market Outlook: Key Trends & Risks

Factors Supporting Higher Prices

• Lower supply has tightened kernel availability, keeping prices firm.

• Packers are largely sold out, which is providing price support in the market.

• Rising demand from the EU for in-shell pistachios, kernels, and ingredients is helping to sustain overall demand.

Factors That Could Weigh on Prices

• Uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs and potential US-China retaliatory policies is causing hesitation among traders.

• Continued availability of pistachios from China and Hong Kong may provide alternative supply options, limiting upside price movement.

• A potentially large 2025 crop could soften prices in the long term, depending on actual yields and demand trends.

Conclusion

The pistachio market is currently navigating a period of supply constraints and uncertain demand dynamics. While lower availability is supporting prices, reduced export demand from China and potential trade disruptionsare creating uncertainty for traders. The European market is showing steady demand, which may help offset some of the weakness seen in China. 

As the industry looks ahead, attention will be on how demand evolves in key export markets, whether trade policies shift, and how the 2025 crop develops. With a tight supply of high-quality kernels, pricing is expected to remain firm in the short term, but long-term trends will depend on crop size and global trade conditions.