Almond Market Update November 2021 - Part B
In a manner similar to the one reported on last week’s market update, Tuesday saw prices fall in the global almond market. While previous issues still remain, this week’s price fall is marked by a new position report released by the Almond Board of California.
What the Report Told Us
The October Position Report by the Almond Board of California revealed that shipments of 207.07 million points were made compared to last year’s 309.68 million pounds. This was a 29.9% decrease from last year. In fact, it was the lowest October shipment report since the 2015/2016 period. The overall crop harvest is expected to be 2.8 billion pounds, once again a -0.91% fall from last year’s 3.1 billion pound crop.
Harvest Update
At this time, the harvest has been completed. While crops continue to look better each week, parts of California reported that they were down 10 to 15%.
Things haven’t picked up much for Californian almonds. Even though Monday saw more rain in California, the Central Valley remains in “exceptional drought.” Sellers say that no amount of rain can fix the problems caused by the lack of water observed in the past few months.
It has impacted the supply of almonds this year and is expected to do so next year as well, causing prices to bolster and sellers willing to sell for near-term shipments.
However, it is worth noting that there is still an opportunity to buy the crop due to a unique set of circumstances: full warehouses, no buyers, and a shipping crisis leading the way. If buyers wait for too long, suppliers will probably sell as many as they want to interested parties, meaning no crop will be left.
Further Disappointment from India
Many sellers expected a lot of demand during Diwali from India’s domestic market, but even that fell short. India’s domestic market seems well-supplied, with 2021 containers starting to arrive.
However, there seemed to be a spike in interest for in-shell containers from California, prompting prices to reach attractive levels. But the Diwali festival season has ended, and the Indian market is now focused on the wedding season, which will finish mid-January. It is expected to mark the increase in consumption of almonds though we shall have to see about that as well.
Since July, there have been massive price swings in the global market, and with the shipping crisis continuing, the market is expected to remain volatile.
The Shipping Crisis Continues
October was riddled with unprecedented delays and cancellations from shipping companies at all California ports. However, a recent development has shown that in addition to the shipping crisis, California is facing a major trucker shortage as well. This is making domestic shipments as well as exports extremely difficult.
Rates have started to increase on land and sea freight, causing further problems for buyers and supplies. Routes all over the Pacific, Asia, India, and most of the Middle East continue to suffer. While on paper, November is projected to be better than October, there is no end in sight.
