May Pistachio Market Report: Shipment Analysis and Future Crop Outlook
Summary of May Pistachio Shipments and Market Trends
In May, shipments saw a decrease of 16% compared to the previous year, yet year-to-date shipments show an impressive 42% increase from the same period last year. Notably, domestic shipments experienced a minor increase, signaling a positive trend in the domestic market. The international market continues to dominate, accounting for 80% of all shipments with significant growth observed in Asia and Europe. Additionally, there is a rising demand for pistachio kernels across all markets. However, there are growing concerns regarding the uneven crop for 2024, particularly for the Kerman variety.
Detailed Analysis of May Pistachio Shipments
Monthly and Yearly Shipment Reports
Domestic shipments for the current month stood at 21.1 million pounds, maintaining the same level as last year. Year-to-date domestic shipments have reached 191.3 million pounds, reflecting a 3.2% increase from last year. Export shipments for the current month were recorded at 49.6 million pounds, showing a significant decrease of 21.5% from last year. However, year-to-date export shipments are up by 56.3%, totaling 783.1 million pounds. The total shipments for the current month were 70.7 million pounds, marking a 16.1% decline from last year, while year-to-date total shipments have risen by 42%, amounting to 974.4 million pounds.
Current Market Conditions and Trends
The decrease in May shipments, approximately 16%, is attributed to shrinking inventory as sellers hold onto 2023 stocks to cover their needs for 2024. Concerns are mounting about whether the 2024 crop will reach the expected 1 billion pounds. Despite the overall decline, domestic shipments showed a slight increase, which is a positive indicator for the industry. This increase coincides with enhanced efforts by American Pistachio Growers to boost domestic demand.
The international market continues to play a crucial role, with 80% of shipments directed abroad. There has been notable growth in Asian markets, and surprisingly, Europe, traditionally seen as a mature and slow-growing market, has also shown substantial growth.
Growing Demand for Pistachio Kernels
There is a steady increase in demand for pistachio kernels across all markets. Consumers and buyers are increasingly recognizing the unique benefits of pistachios, such as their distinct color, flavor, and nutritional profile. This rising demand has prompted a partnership with The Pistachio Factory to expand the production and marketing of pistachio butter and paste.
Projections and Concerns for the 2024 Crop
Observations from various orchard tours indicate an uneven crop. While the Golden Hills and Lost Hills varieties appear normal for an off-crop year, the Kerman variety, which constitutes the bulk of production, shows significant issues. With the uncertainties surrounding the 2024 crop, it is anticipated that more processors might withdraw from the market.
Comprehensive Supply and Consumption Analysis (million lbs)
Supply Overview
• Carry In: 163.8 million lbs
• Production: 1,492.7 million lbs
• Loss: 242.0 million lbs
• Total Supply: 1,414.5 million lbs
Consumption Breakdown
• Domestic Shipments: 275.0 million lbs
• Export Shipments: 915.0 million lbs
• Total Consumption: 1,190.0 million lbs
• Total Carry Out: 224.5 million lbs
Detailed Analysis
• Loss as % of Supply: 17.1%
• Carry In % of Supply: 11.0%
• Domestic Consumption % of Supply: 19.4%
• Export Consumption % of Supply: 64.7%
• Total Consumption % of Supply: 84.1%
• Carry Out % of Supply: 15.9%
